Financial Associated Press, May 3 (Reporter Cheng Mengqi) A shares are still immersed in the May Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks yesterday ushered in the first trading day in May. The three major indexes all rose, of which the Hang Seng Index rose 2.Ataricrash.5%, 8 Lianyang; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.Ataricrash.45%; the index of state-owned enterprises rose 2.6%. That night, hot US stocks rose sharply, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose more than 6%, the highest level since the end of November last year.
Hong Kong technology stocks continued to rise this morning, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 1.75%, bilibili up 6.54%, and Tencent Holdings up 3.4%, reaching an one-year high of 372.6 yuan. JD.com Group is up 4.4%.
In the midst of a surge, the three major indices have broken through 200 antennas one after another, and the call for Hong Kong stocks to enter a technical bull market is getting louder and louder. The Hong Kong stock market has turned around in a short time.AtaricrashThe public impression has changed from losing the world to leading the world.
During the same period, Shan Weijian, executive chairman of Tai Meng Investment Group, wrote an article entitled "the charm of Hong Kong". The white knight who saved Wanda's core assets said, "the worst of Hong Kong is over. The economy grew by 3.2% in 2023. Talent also resumed inflow. The growth of the net inflow population shows the confidence of Hong Kong people in the future, which is the most important guarantee for the future of Hong Kong. "
What is the relationship between Hong Kong stocks leading the global rally and Hong Kong regaining the world's attention? Has the Hang Seng Index, which has fallen for four years in a row, been as unsuccessful as Hong Kong and ushered in the fate of rising again?
From falling for four years to reversing the trend, what is the charm of Hong Kong?
Shan Weijian mentioned in the article "the charm of Hong Kong" that the Hong Kong Immigration Bureau statistics show that the net outflow in 2020 and 2021 is 97200, while the net inflow in 2022 and 2023 is 152300, with the net inflow exceeding the net outflow of 55100.
Like Hong Kong, which was once mired in a brain drain, the Hang Seng Index, the largest index in the Hong Kong stock market, fell for four years from 2020 to 2023. According to the annual K line of the Hang Seng Index, it fell 3.4% in 2020, 14.08% in 2021, 15.46% in 2022 and 13.82% in 2023. At present, the important index of the world's major financial centers has not fallen for five years in a row. In fact, the Hang Seng Index has risen eight consecutive times recently, which has not only recovered the decline since the beginning of the year, but has risen by 8% as of the end of the year, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has risen as high as 12% this year.
Interestingly, Tai Meng, led by Shan Weijian, also has a deep relationship with Hong Kong stocks. Pacific Alliance is not only one of the largest independent alternative investment management groups in Asia, but also the only alternative investment company headquartered in the Asia-Pacific region. at present, it has invested more than 75 billion US dollars in Asia, which is known as "Asian Little Blackstone". In March 2022, Pacific Alliance submitted a form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a plan to raise US $2 billion, valuing it at US $20 billion. However, because the market was not optimistic at that time, the listing of Hong Kong shares of the Pacific League Group was shelved. Now, the Hong Kong stock market has seen signs of recovery, the chairman of Tai Meng Group has never left Hong Kong, perhaps Tai Meng Group at this time to restart Hong Kong IPO is not unexpected.
Hong Kong stockAtaricrashFrom the coldest winter to leading the return to spring
"Hong Kong stocks have experienced the coldest winter of a decline in confidence, and high-success assets may lead the return of Hong Kong stocks in the spring." Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist at Societe Generale Securities, pointed out that Hong Kong stocks have been adjusting for many years, and the timing and extent of the adjustment are rare in history. The risk premium of Hong Kong stocks is significantly higher than that of overseas stocks. Comparing the valuations of representative stocks of Hong Kong stocks with those of similar stocks of American stocks, Hong Kong stocks have a significant discount. The profit-making effect of high-success assets began to spread, from high-dividend central enterprises to the rebound of core assets.
In terms of liquidity, Zhang Yidong believes that US debt interest rates have peaked and the pricing power of "Beishui" has increased. Local capital in Hong Kong, China is expected to improve in 2024, benefiting from the peak of interest rates on US debt under the linked exchange rate. This year, mainland funds will continue to increase the allocation of Hong Kong stocks. Under the low interest rate environment in the mainland, the performance-to-price ratio of Hong Kong stocks' high-success assets has become more prominent. The trading of short port stocks in 2024 may be reversed, things will be reversed at the extreme, and changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan may serve as catalysts. He expects 2024 Hong Kong stocks to rise at the bottom and gradually return to the long market from the short market in the past few years. Although it is still faced with the interference of market sentiment caused by many uncertainties such as the US election, the improvement of capital and fundamental environment is the dominant variable in the medium and short term of Hong Kong stocks, which can be used for reference from 2016-2017 and 2019-2020.
Under the current situation, Zhang Yidong believes that, on the one hand, adhere to the investment idea of high dividend assets, that is, from the pure debt strategy of 2023 to the convertible bond strategy of 2024. As the economy stabilizes, high dividend assets should pay attention to the upward elasticity of earnings, with a dividend yield of 3% or better than 5%. On the other hand, selected core assets in the segment, technology stocks whose performance is expected to improve, copper, power tools, home appliances, furniture, etc., related to US economic demand, and "Belt and Road Initiative" demand-related opportunities as well as selected consumer and manufacturing leaders.
Zheshang International Shen Fanchao believes that the configuration continues to emphasize the decentralized and balanced industry sector. Focus on the sector of state-owned enterprises with sound performance, stock prices and dividends, such as energy, banking, telecommunications and public utilities. At the same time, it is suggested to retain some of the layout of high prosperity and boom improvement industries, including construction machinery, auto parts, home appliances, electronics, science and technology Internet, and so on.